[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioeb1961d6":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioeb1961d6","摩根大通推演：美联储明天的5种可能情景","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioeb1961d6","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>一、不加息\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这反而可能不是利好。因为市场会担心通胀继续失控，长期美债收益率进一步上升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>预计：下跌\u003C\u002Fspan> 1.25%\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>1.75%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>二、加息\u003C\u002Fspan>25\u003Cspan>个基点，但不给后续指引\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这是华尔街目前最主流的预期。美股投资网分析认为，加\u003C\u002Fspan>25bp\u003Cspan>本身已经基本被市场消化，如果没有额外鹰派措辞，反而有利于压住长端利率。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>预计：上涨\u003C\u002Fspan> 0.25%\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>0.75%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>三、加息\u003C\u002Fspan>25\u003Cspan>个基点，同时暗示未来降息路径后移\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如果沃什暗示，美联储只是把原本预期的降息往后推，而不是开启更激进的连续加息，市场可能把它理解为“这次先一次性处理通胀问题”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>预计：上涨\u003C\u002Fspan> 0.5%\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>1%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>四、加息\u003C\u002Fspan>25\u003Cspan>个基点，同时上调\u003C\u002Fspan>R-star\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>R-star\u003Cspan>就是“中性实际利率”。如果美联储暗示中性利率比过去更高，市场会担心：现在的利率其实还不够紧，未来可能需要再加\u003C\u002Fspan>50\u003Cspan>个基点甚至更多。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>预计：下跌\u003C\u002Fspan> 0.25%\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>1%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>五、加息\u003C\u002Fspan>25\u003Cspan>个基点，同时释放“必须强力压通胀”的信号\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这是最鹰派的情景。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果沃什明确表示利率需要“明显更高”，类似\u003C\u002Fspan>2022\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>2023\u003Cspan>年的加息周期，那市场会开始担心这不是一次加息，而是一轮新的连续紧缩。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>预计：下跌\u003C\u002Fspan> 1%\u003Cspan>—\u003C\u002Fspan>2%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$SPY $VOO 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]