[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioe6fd2895":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioe6fd2895","谷歌TPU开始分单，AMD要抢博通的生意了？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioe6fd2895","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>谷歌\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>开始分单，\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>要抢博通的生意了？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>今天聊一个可能正在改写\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>芯片格局的事情\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>谷歌的\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>供应链正在发生肉眼可见的变化。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>一边是博通的\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>出货预期开始下修，另一边是\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>可能首次进入\u003C\u002Fspan>Google TPU\u003Cspan>供应链。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>放在一起看，谷歌正在做一件非常明确的事：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>降低对单一\u003C\u002Fspan>ASIC\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>供应商的依赖。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>先看博通这边，数字不太好看了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>SemiAnalysis\u003Cspan>最新报告给出的数据很直接：\u003Cspan>博通\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>2026\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>年的\u003C\u002Fspan>CoWoS\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>晶圆需求从之前预期的\u003C\u002Fspan>25\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>万片砍到了\u003C\u002Fspan>21.5\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>万片。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>拆开来看：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan>TPU v7x\u003Cspan>（\u003C\u002Fspan>Ironwood\u003Cspan>）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>：\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan>年产量从\u003C\u002Fspan>320\u003Cspan>万颗降到\u003C\u002Fspan>270\u003Cspan>万颗，少了\u003C\u002Fspan>50\u003Cspan>万颗。而且上游产出在二季度就见顶了，下半年不但不涨，还会小幅下滑\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>这跟之前\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>下半年继续爬坡\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>的预期完全是两个方向。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan>TPU v8i\u003Cspan>（\u003C\u002Fspan>Sunfish\u003Cspan>）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>：也被砍了大概\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>万颗。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fli>\n\u003C\u002Ful>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>博通自己\u003C\u002Fspan>CEO\u003Cspan>陈福阳在\u003C\u002Fspan>6\u003Cspan>月初的财报电话会上就已经松了口，承认\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU v7\u002Fv8i\u003Cspan>的交付总量会低于此前预测的\u003C\u002Fspan>600\u003Cspan>万颗。这等于管理层提前打了预防针。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>2027\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>年也好不到哪去。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>之前市场预期\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU 7\u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU 8i\u003Cspan>合计能干到\u003C\u002Fspan>600\u003Cspan>万颗，现在这个数字也要往下调。原因不是谷歌不买了，而是博通的产能被分走了\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>总\u003C\u002Fspan>CoWoS\u003Cspan>需求大约\u003C\u002Fspan>46\u003Cspan>万片，但里面有\u003C\u002Fspan>5.5\u003Cspan>万片（相当于\u003C\u002Fspan>83\u003Cspan>万颗\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU 8i\u003Cspan>）要拿去给\u003C\u002Fspan>Meta\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>MTIA 400 Iris\u003Cspan>项目。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>SemiAnalysis\u003Cspan>特别提到，\u003C\u002Fspan>Meta\u003Cspan>在\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan>月份就干过一件事\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>主动砍掉自己在博通的产能分配，换取谷歌\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>算力的使用权。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Meta\u003Cspan>的订单随时可能变卦，说不要就不要了。这笔\u003C\u002Fspan>83\u003Cspan>万颗的产能到底是给\u003C\u002Fspan>Meta\u003Cspan>还是回头给\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>，现在谁也说不准。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>再看\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>这边，故事才刚刚开始。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>市场传言说谷歌正在和\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>谈\u003C\u002Fspan>v10\u003Cspan>代\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>的合作。如果这事落地，将是\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>第一次真正杀进大型定制\u003C\u002Fspan>AI ASIC\u003Cspan>项目。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AMD\u003Cspan>凭什么？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>第一，先进封装。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>AMD\u003Cspan>在\u003C\u002Fspan>SoIC\u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan>Chip-on-Wafer\u003Cspan>技术上早就趟过路了，已经把\u003C\u002Fspan>SRAM\u003Cspan>垂直堆到\u003C\u002Fspan>CPU\u003Cspan>上面去过。\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>越做越复杂，封装能力越重要。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>第二，\u003C\u002Fspan>CPU IP\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>SemiAnalysis\u003Cspan>指出，谷歌和它的客户正在推动\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>往强化学习（\u003C\u002Fspan>RL\u003Cspan>）这类工作负载上走，未来可能需要把\u003C\u002Fspan>CPU\u003Cspan>核心直接塞到\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>封装里。\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>手里有现成的\u003C\u002Fspan>x86 CPU IP\u003Cspan>，博通可没有。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>第三，\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>做定制芯片不是新手。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>2013\u003Cspan>年就成立了半定制业务部门，游戏主机芯片做了十几年。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>但话说回来，这件事目前还是\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>市场传言\u003C\u002Fspan>\"\u003Cspan>，双方都没正式确认。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>怎么看这件事？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>从博通的角度，短期利空是实实在在的\u003C\u002Fspan>——CoWoS\u003Cspan>产能下调、\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>产量砍单，这些都是已经发生的事。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>市场已经开始重新定价了：\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>月\u003C\u002Fspan>14\u003Cspan>日周五当天，\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>涨了\u003C\u002Fspan>6.5%\u003Cspan>，博通跌了\u003C\u002Fspan>5.9%\u003Cspan>。美银本周二还把博通的信用评级下调到了中性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>但博通没有护城河很硬。它在\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan>月份刚和谷歌签了到\u003C\u002Fspan>2031\u003Cspan>年的长期供应协议，\u003C\u002Fspan>v8\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>v9\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>v10\u003Cspan>、\u003C\u002Fspan>v11\u003Cspan>四代\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>都有份。而且摩根士丹利预估博通\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003Cspan>财年\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>收入能到\u003C\u002Fspan>1200\u003Cspan>亿美元，其中\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>相关收入约\u003C\u002Fspan>800\u003Cspan>亿。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>最大的变数\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最大的变数在于：谷歌到底想把鸡蛋分几个篮子放？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>以前\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>几乎是博通独家，现在联发科已经切走了\u003C\u002Fspan>v9\u003Cspan>的一部分，\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>又在谈\u003C\u002Fspan>v10\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>谷歌的供应链多元化趋势已经很清楚了\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>它不想在任何一家供应商身上绑死。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为，这件事暂时还不能理解成博通丢掉谷歌，更准确的说法是，它在谷歌\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU\u003Cspan>里的份额和议价权，未来可能不再像过去那么稳。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>对\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan>来说则完全相反，如果\u003C\u002Fspan>v10\u003Cspan>合作最终落地，这不只是多一个订单，而是它第一次真正进入\u003C\u002Fspan>Hyperscaler\u003Cspan>定制\u003C\u002Fspan>AI ASIC\u003Cspan>的核心供应链\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>接下来真正需要跟踪两个变量：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cbr>\u003Cspan> \u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>第一，\u003C\u002Fspan>2027\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>年那\u003C\u002Fspan>5.5\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>万片\u003C\u002Fspan>CoWoS\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>产能最终如何分配；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>第二，\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>参与\u003C\u002Fspan>TPU v10\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan>的传闻能不能得到进一步供应链验证。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FG\u002FGOOG\u002FGOOG.jpg","2026-08-16T14:21:11","2026.08.16","2026\u002F08\u002F16",40613,[22],"GOOG","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]