[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciodf7e818a":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciodf7e818a","今年美联储会在什么时候开始降息？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciodf7e818a","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>各大投行摩根士丹利加入高盛与巴克莱的行列，将美联储下一次降息预期从6月推迟至9月——此前美联储已就中东冲突背景下的通胀风险发出警示。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>这家华尔街投行目前预计，美联储将在9月和12月各降息25个基点，修正了此前6月、9月各降息一次的预测。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>美联储主席鲍威尔在周三美联储维持利率不变后的新闻发布会上表示：“短期内，能源价格上涨将推高整体通胀，但现在判断其对经济影响的范围和持续时间还为时过早。”\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>最新预测显示，美联储官员集体预计联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在年底前降息25个基点，而华尔街主要机构仍预期年内降息两次。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>摩根士丹利策略师在报告中称：“美联储态度谨慎意味着降息推迟。我们观点的主要风险在于，降息会更晚到来，甚至根本不会到来”，“另一方面，油价第二轮飙升可能导致经济活动与劳动力市场走弱，进而促使降息。”\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>受中东冲突持续影响，全球近五分之一石油贸易必经的霍尔木兹海峡关闭，布伦特原油价格已突破每桶110美元。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>据美股投资网获悉，芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，交易员目前预计美联储9月维持利率不变的概率超过70%。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>退休与财富服务机构Empower首席投资策略师玛尔塔・诺顿（Marta Norton）表示：“此前市场对降息的预期远超前美联储表态，如今投资者已大幅下调预期。若此前你因货币政策刺激而看涨股市，那这或许不再是你预想中的短期催化剂。”\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>去年，就业市场走弱促使以稳定就业与通胀为目标的美联储将基准利率降至当前3.50%-3.75%区间。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>西北互惠财富管理公司（Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company）首席投资官布伦特・舒特（Brent Schutte）表示，其公司目前低配股票：“整体来看，这凸显了美联储面临的微妙平衡。通胀方面毫无进展，但就业市场依然疲软，且有进一步走弱迹象。”\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>鲍威尔会留任吗？\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>本周会议原本被视为鲍威尔作为美联储主席的倒数第二次会议，其主席任期将于5月到期。多次批评鲍威尔降息力度不足的美国总统特朗普，已提名前美联储理事凯文・沃什（Kevin Warsh）接任主席一职。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>但鲍威尔周三表示，他将继续担任美联储主席直至继任者获得确认，且在针对美联储的刑事调查结束前不会离开该机构。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>纽约梅隆银行（BNY）美洲宏观策略师约翰・维利斯（John Velis）称，鲍威尔关于调查结束后可能留任美联储理事会的表态，叠加通胀持续时长与降息重启时间的不确定性，推动美债收益率走高。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>维利斯表示，鲍威尔若继续留任理事会，“沃什将难以快速上任并推动降息”。\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>Osaic首席市场策略师菲尔・布兰卡托（Phil 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]