[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciod5867cc7":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciod5867cc7","因关税和宏观经济不确定性，摩根大通下调对台积电的需求预期","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciod5867cc7","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>受特朗普关税和全球经济放缓预期的影响，摩根大通小幅下调了 台积电TSM CoWoS的需求预测。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>当地时间周三，摩根大通的Gokul Hariharan分析师团队发布研报，将其对台积电CoWoS先进封装技术在未来两年的消费预期分别下调了7%和3%，理由是来自亚马逊自研AI芯片的需求减少，以及基于宏观经济的不确定性。报告预测，考虑到关税和全球经济放缓的影响，台积电管理层可能将2025财年的收入增长指引从约25%下调至20%左右。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>考虑到亚马逊Trainium 2芯片供应链的波动较大，摩根大通将2025年Trainium 2的出货量预测大幅下调至约110-120万台。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>此外，亚马逊Trainium芯片被外部客户采用的前景有限。摩根大通现在预期，未来两年，下一代Trainium项目的生命周期单位仅增长5-10%，市场可能会对亚马逊的定制芯片（ASIC）项目持更为谨慎的态度。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>尽管如此，摩根大通预测，2025年台积电CoWoS的整体需求仍预计增长107%，2026年继续保持37%的增长，这主要得益于英伟达的强劲需求、ASIC项目增加（尤其是博通和联发科）以及苹果WMCM芯片封装业务的启动。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>英伟达仍是CoWoS最大客户，但增长预期趋于理性\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>报告预计，台积电的CoWoS产能将在2025年继续保持紧张，但到2026年可能会达到供需平衡。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>英伟达继续是CoWoS-L需求的主要驱动力，大摩预计，该公司将获得足够的CoWoS分配，以在2025年生产约550-600万个Blackwell B200\u002FB300芯片和约70万个Hopper芯片。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>摩根大通将2026年的英伟达CoWoS消耗预估上调约10%，这主要是由于Rubin芯片的晶圆产出率较低（每片CoWoS晶圆仅能支持生产11-12颗芯片），封装面积增加了30-35%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>值得注意的是，这一预测并未假设GPU单位有明显增长（可能维持在约700万单位）。预计英伟达将在2025和2026年分别占据总CoWoS产能的65%和60%。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>摩根大通维持对台积电“增持”评级，但目标价从1500元新台币下调至1300元新台币，较当前股价高52%左右。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>据预测，由于N4\u002FN5和N3工艺的强劲需求、部分旧制程急单以及先进封装业务的增长，台积电今年第二季度收入可能按季增长5%至8%。然而，关税和全球经济放缓的影响可能导致台积电管理层将2025财年的收入增长指引从约25%下调至20%左右。目前，摩根大通预计台积电全年收入将增长23%（按美元计价）。\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>台积电的业绩情况似乎不容过于乐观，越来越多分析师预测其业绩将疲软。德意志银行表示，随着客户适应关税变化，台积电也可能会撤回业绩指引。\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202504-stk\u002FUploadererbxmnw0bdb_2025_04_16_09_13_05.jpg","2025-04-16T16:10:58.6","2025.04.16","2025\u002F04\u002F16",41587,[22],"TSM","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwewebfiles.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":68,"summaryHtml":73,"aboutTitle":74,"aboutHtml":75,"copyrightHtml":76},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":60,"url":61},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":63,"url":64},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":66,"url":67},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[69,70,71,72],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]