[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciod169d08f":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciod169d08f","大摩“增持”Rocket-Lab(RKLB)-：吞下铱星(IRDM)补齐通信拼图，正复刻SpaceX一体化航天路径","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciod169d08f","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">美股投资网获悉，摩根士丹利近日发布Rocket Lab(RKLB)深度研报，Rocket Lab于2026年6月官宣收购铱星通讯(IRDM)，交易预计2027年年中完成，是公司从单一火箭发射商转型全产业链太空平台的战略拐点。基于战略逻辑升级，该行维持Rocket Lab“增持”评级，基准目标价105美元，乐观情景目标价由185美元上调至293美元，多空风险收益比4.8倍，上行空间显著大于下行风险。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">本次收购交易总对价每股54美元，较IRDM前期股价溢价24.1%，采用现金+股票对半支付模式，扣除现金、叠加标的债务后企业估值约75.87亿美元。IRDM手握稀缺全球L波段频谱、66颗在轨运营卫星与250万政企存量用户，2025年实现近8.72亿美元营收，EBITDA利润率高达57%，能够为Rocket Lab带来稳定现金流，省去自建低轨星座巨额资本开支与数年建设周期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">大摩在报告中明确，Rocket Lab收购IRDM并非对标SpaceX(SPCX)星链宽带业务，二者赛道错位竞争铱星主打低带宽、高可靠性的政企关键任务通信，星链聚焦大众高速宽带互联网，仅卫星直连手机业务未来存在小幅重叠。依托发射、卫星制造、卫星通信三大业务协同，Rocket Lab正式复制SpaceX“垂直一体化”商业模式，成为全球航天赛道第二大核心玩家。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">对标SpaceX体量差距显著，但增长弹性更突出\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">报告对Rocket Lab与龙头SpaceX进行了对比，二者当前存在量级差距，但Rocket Lab中长期增长潜力更强。市值维度，Rocket Lab约623亿美元，仅为SpaceX 2.23万亿市值的2.8%;2026年预期营收9.23亿美元，仅占SpaceX营收的2.1%，卫星数量、发射总运力、订阅用户规模均大幅落后。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">成本端SpaceX凭借星舰超重型可回收火箭形成碾压优势，2030年单位载荷入轨成本仅515美元\u002F公斤，而Rocket Lab中型火箭Neutron单位成本约1731美元\u002F公斤。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">但从增长速度看，Rocket Lab具备更强弹性2025-2028年整体营收复合增速45%，发射业务增速高达57%，远高于SpaceX发射业务22%的增速;发射板块毛利润复合增速69%，对比SpaceX仅15%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">产品端，Rocket Lab现有成熟小型火箭Electron，正在研发2027年首飞的中型可回收火箭Neutron，补齐中大型载荷发射能力，预计2030年Electron年发射50次、Neutron年发射18次，持续摊薄发射成本。在AI与轨道算力领域双方差距最大，SpaceX布局地面超算与2028年在轨算力卫星，Rocket Lab仅能提供航天硬件配套，暂无算力相关收入。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">财务层面，Rocket Lab仍处于投入期，2025至2027年持续亏损，2027年实现正向调整后EBITDA，2028年净利润、自由现金流同步转正;而SpaceX当前已实现大额盈利，星舰放量后利润将爆发式增长。整体来看，Rocket Lab依托更小基数与铱星通信增量业务，营收、利润增速将持续跑赢龙头。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">估值与风险长期空间广阔，短期依赖火箭研发兑现\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">大摩在报告中设置了三种估值情景，清晰划分个股收益区间。乐观情景目标价293美元，测算逻辑为给予Rocket Lab对应SpaceX航天板块总估值10%的成长空间，前提是Neutron火箭研发、复用技术落地顺利，铱星通信业务价值完全释放，对应股价上涨空间超250%;\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">基准情景105美元，相较SpaceX估值折价30%，折价来源为中型火箭研发不确定性、通信业务尚待整合，对应上涨空间25.88%;\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">悲观情景目标价40美元，假设Neutron延期、发射故障频发、复用技术不及预期，2030年营收仅达乐观情景六成，股价下跌超52%。期权隐含数据显示，股价触及乐观价概率趋近于0，跌破悲观价概率34.6%，达到基准目标价概率约12.6%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">大摩同时梳理多维度核心风险与投资逻辑。上行催化包括低轨巨型星座建设持续拉动发射需求、IRDM稀缺频谱形成长期壁垒、太空机器人收购完善在轨服务布局、政府航天订单稳定放量。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">下行风险集中于Neutron火箭研发进度不及预期、行业发射价格战压缩利润、铱星并购存在第三方竞购导致交易终止、持续资本开支拉长盈利周期、频谱监管政策变动削弱IRDM核心资产价值。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">整体而言，摩根士丹利判断航天赛道长期景气度充足，Rocket Lab通过收购铱星通信补齐业务短板，搭建起区别于SpaceX的差异化一体化航天平台。虽然短期企业仍面临亏损、研发不确定性等压力，但更高的增长弹性与稀缺通信资产打开长期估值天花板，风险收益配比具备投资价值，核心变量集中于中型火箭Neutron的落地进度与铱星业务整合效果。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]