[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dciob13bcc25":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dciob13bcc25","拉长30年时间线，看懂半导体真正的运行规律！","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdciob13bcc25","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>上个月，半导体行业暴跌，把很多人吓坏了，但是如果你翻一下历史，就知道是半导体行业的常态。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>过去\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan>多年里半导体行业经历了\u003C\u002Fspan>13\u003Cspan>次大调整，平均每两年多就要来一次。这根本不是什么“罕见崩盘”，而是这个行业固有的运行规律。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>拿近几年的几轮大调整来说：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2024\u003Cspan>年套利与关税波动：砸了\u003C\u002Fspan>40%\u003Cspan>，\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan>个月涨回来；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2020\u003Cspan>年疫情冲击：砸了\u003C\u002Fspan>35%\u003Cspan>，\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan>个月涨回来；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2018\u003Cspan>年贸易争端：砸了\u003C\u002Fspan>26%\u003Cspan>，\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan>个月涨回来；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2022\u003Cspan>年美联储加息：砸了\u003C\u002Fspan>46%\u003Cspan>，算长的，用了\u003C\u002Fspan>14\u003Cspan>个月涨回来。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>历史上半导体熊市的平均下跌幅度大约在\u003C\u002Fspan>37%\u003Cspan>左右，回调周期通常持续小半年到一年。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>而最近这几轮（比如\u003C\u002Fspan>2018\u003Cspan>年、\u003C\u002Fspan>2020\u003Cspan>年和\u003C\u002Fspan>2024\u003Cspan>年），市场修复的速度都非常快，基本在\u003C\u002Fspan>3\u003Cspan>到\u003C\u002Fspan>4\u003Cspan>个月内就踩着\u003C\u002Fspan>V\u003Cspan>型反弹走出来了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>唯一一次例外是千禧年的互联网泡沫，当时整个板块暴跌了\u003C\u002Fspan>85%\u003Cspan>，用了十多年才修补回来。但那时的芯片公司大部分是没有真实盈利支撑的空中楼阁。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为，现在的底层逻辑完全不同：全球各大科技巨头都在砸钱建算力，芯片公司的营收和利润依然处于历史高位，背后有实打实的业绩和\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>需求在支撑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>半导体行业从来都是这样，急跌时极其考验心理素质，但只要行业的基本面没有被破坏，过一段时间总能爬起来。与其盲目恐慌，不如多看看底层的周期规律\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FM\u002FMU\u002FMU.jpg","2026-08-11T05:20:13","2026.08.11","2026\u002F08\u002F11",33761,[22],"MU","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]