[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioa93de38f":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioa93de38f","华创证券：就业数据支持美联储继续按兵不动","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioa93de38f","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">美股投资网获悉，华创证券发布研报称，就业数据支持美联储继续按兵不动。对美联储而言，稳健的就业是关注和决策重心转向通胀的基石假设，也是在此基础上，基于对通胀容忍度的差异，导致美联储内部分歧加大。而近两个月的就业持续降温，转向“弱而不崩”，支持了继续按兵不动、等待并观察通胀继续回落的合理性，也有利于弥合内部的分歧。目前依然倾向于美联储今年可以维持利率不变，类似1997年“预防式加息”的理由并不充分。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">华创证券主要观点如下\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">7月非农数据简述\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">1、新增非农就业人数-2.3万，预期8万，前两个月合计下修10.3万。就业增长主要来自教育保健服务(+2.5万，前值+5.4万)、建筑(+2.2万，前值+0.5万)、专业和商业服务(+1.8万，前值+3.4万)，就业萎缩的行业有四个政府部门(-5.3万，前值-1万)、休闲酒店业(-4万，前值-4.3万)、零售、金融。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">2、失业率从4.2%降至4.1%，预期4.2%。劳动参与率从61.5%降至61.4%，预期61.6%。家庭调查中，劳动力减少26.4万，就业下降8.7万，失业下降17.8万，非劳动力增长38.1万。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">3、私人行业时薪环比0.1%，预期0.3%，前值0.3%，同比增速3.2%，预期3.5%，前值3.4%。周工时持平于34.3小时。周薪环比增长0.1%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">4、市场年内加息预期降温，联邦基金期货市场定价的9月份加息概率从57%降至44%，定价的今年加息次数从1.35次降至1.13次。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">就业数据全面降温\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">第一，从总量来看，新增非农就业意外转负，前两个月数据被大幅下修。最近三个月平均新增非农就业从7.7万降至2万，降至海外机构估计的盈亏平衡就业增长水平的下沿区间。从结构上来看，行业就业也不如人意。虽然本月新增非农就业受地方政府教育部门(-5万，前值-1.16万)拖累较大，但私人部门新增非农就业也偏弱，休闲酒店、零售和金融业的就业人数萎缩，前两者或与世界杯临时招聘需求的消退有关。只有AI建设需求下的建筑业就业增长偏强。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">第二，失业率继续超预期下行，但主因依然不是“更多的人找到了工作”，而是“更多的人退出了劳动力市场”。虽然黄金年龄段(25-54岁)群体的参与率略有回升，但青少年和老年人的参与率继续明显下行。今年以来劳动参与率持续下降，削弱了失业率对就业市场的指示意义，可替代的观察指标是就业和人口的比率，今年以来，就业人口比率下降约0.8pct，去年全年仅下降0.3pct。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">第三，与疲软的就业增长相匹配，时薪环比增速低于预期，同比增速则降至2021年6月份以来的新低。中长期通胀预期脱锚和通胀-薪资螺旋是临时性物价冲击转换为持续性通胀的核心传导渠道。目前来看，中长期通胀预期稳定，薪资同比增速持续下行，内生的二次通胀风险较低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">就业数据支持美联储继续按兵不动\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">7月份非农就业继续全面降温，继续印证前期的判断年初以来的就业明显回暖不具有持续性，就业过热叙事被进一步“证伪”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">对美联储而言，稳健的就业是关注和决策重心转向通胀的基石假设，也是在此基础上，基于对通胀容忍度的差异，导致美联储内部分歧加大。而近两个月的就业持续降温，转向“弱而不崩”，支持了继续按兵不动、等待并观察通胀继续回落的合理性，也有利于弥合内部的分歧。目前依然倾向于美联储今年可以维持利率不变，类似1997年“预防式加息”的理由并不充分。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">对市场而言，美股方面，加息压力的缓和，意味着宏观政策逆风情景的风险扰动继续消退，宏观风险偏好边际改善。美债方面，则有助于缓和实际利率的上行压力，若后续通胀不超预期，短端和长端美债利率或已处于阶段性顶部区间，继续大幅上行的概率均较低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">风险提示地缘冲突的不确定性，AI产业趋势的不确定性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 每天处理千万级股票数据：捕捉期权大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准交易信号第一时间发到您手机APP！\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSPX\u002FSPX.jpg","2026-08-10T15:35:42","2026.08.10","2026\u002F08\u002F10",32389,[22],"SPX","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]