[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcioa2883ee9":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcioa2883ee9","警惕 美股接下来回调的风险逐渐增大！[美股投资网独家分析]","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcioa2883ee9","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">先说关键数据，本周出炉的美国批发通胀数据创\u003C\u002Fspan>2022\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年以来最差表现，将市场对美联储政策路径的预期彻底逆转。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">根据\u003C\u002Fspan>CME Group\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">基于联邦基金期货的数据，\u003Cstrong>市场目前预计美联储年内加息的概率约为\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cstrong>50%\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fstrong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">一年期、一年后美国通胀互换\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">衡量一年后未来\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个月通胀预期的衍生品\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">周五升至\u003C\u002Fspan>2025\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>2\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最高水平。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美国\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期国债收益率本周收报\u003C\u002Fspan>5.12%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，创\u003C\u002Fspan>2007\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>7\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月以来最高收盘水平，单周涨幅接近\u003C\u002Fspan>20\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个基点；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">美股投资网团队周末研究后认为，接下来会对美股对美股会形成五层压力：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">一：估值体系被重新定价（最致命）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美股尤其科技股，本质是“未来现金流”的折现游戏。利率越高：未来利润折现后的价值越低。所以为什么：\u003C\u002Fspan>NVDA\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>AMD\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>AVGO\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>ARM\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、\u003C\u002Fspan>PLTR \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">以及大量\u003C\u002Fspan>SaaS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、高\u003C\u002Fspan>PS AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">概念股，对长端利率极其敏感。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">此前市场能够接受\u003C\u002Fspan>“50\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍\u003C\u002Fspan>PE\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">没问题，因为未来增长足够快\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这样的逻辑，但如果\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年美债已经能够提供\u003C\u002Fspan>5.1%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的无风险收益，资金就会开始重新思考：\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">为什么还要承担\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">泡沫的风险？\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">于是，高估值成长股首先面临的，就是\u003C\u002Fspan>PE\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">压缩。这也是为什么最近很多\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">公司即便业绩很好，股价却不再明显上涨，因为市场已经开始从\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">看增长\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，逐渐切换到\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">看估值还能不能撑得住\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">二：美元流动性也开始被抽走\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美国国债收益率暴涨，会吸引全球资本重新回流美元资产，因为\u003C\u002Fspan>5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的美国国债，已经开始变成\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">高收益\u003C\u002Fspan> + \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">无风险\u003C\u002Fspan> + \u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元资产\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的组合。这会直接抽走新兴市场、高风险资产、小盘股、加密货币以及高\u003C\u002Fspan>Beta AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">板块的资金。历史上，每次长债收益率快速飙升，市场往往都会进入\u003C\u002Fspan>Risk-Off\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">阶段，也就是风险资产去杠杆周期。最明显的特征通常是：小盘股先跌、半导体先跌、软件股先跌、高杠杆公司先跌，最后才轮到指数层面承压。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">三：企业融资成本正在开始恶化\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">而这一点市场目前可能还没有完全\u003C\u002Fspan>Price In\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期利率站上\u003C\u002Fspan>5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，意味着企业发债成本显著提升。尤其是商业地产、高负债企业、中小银行、公用事业、\u003C\u002Fspan>REITs\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，以及高资本开支的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">基础设施公司，压力都会非常大。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">事实上，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">行业本身就是一个极度烧钱的行业。数据中心、\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">采购、电力、网络、液冷以及基础设施建设，都需要巨额资本投入。很多\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">概念股真正的自由现金流其实并不强。当融资成本持续上升，市场就会重新审视一个核心问题：\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">增长到底能不能真正转化为利润？这也是近期市场风格开始从\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">只看\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">故事\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，转向\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">看\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">盈利兑现\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的原因。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">四：原油突破\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元最危险\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这是目前最被低估的风险。如果油价重新突破\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元并持续维持高位，就意味着第二轮通胀可能重新回归。市场最害怕的从来都不是单纯的经济衰退，而是\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">滞胀\u003C\u002Fspan>”——\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">也就是通胀重新抬头、利率维持高位、经济却开始放缓。这会形成\u003C\u002Fspan>“Higher for Longer 2.0”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">对于科技股而言，这将形成典型的\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">双杀\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">：一边是高利率压制估值，另一边是经济放缓压制盈利。这也是\u003C\u002Fspan>2000\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年之后多轮科技泡沫破裂的重要背景之一。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">五：\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">主线开始第一次遭遇\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">宏观压制\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">2023\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">到\u003C\u002Fspan>2025\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年的这轮\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">行情，本质上是\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">盈利增长压过宏观利率\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。但如果未来美国\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期国债收益率继续冲向\u003C\u002Fspan>5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期进一步冲向\u003C\u002Fspan>5.3%-5.5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，市场很可能会进入一个\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">宏观大于\u003C\u002Fspan>AI”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的阶段。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这意味着，即便\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">产业逻辑没有改变，股价也未必还能持续上涨，因为资金成本已经发生了变化。这其实是所有超级牛市中期都会经历的阶段。无论是互联网泡沫、\u003C\u002Fspan>2021\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年的\u003C\u002Fspan>SaaS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">泡沫，还是新能源泡沫，都曾经历过\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">产业逻辑没错，但利率杀估值\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的过程。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">接下来市场最关键的观察点包括：美国\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期国债收益率是否站稳\u003C\u002Fspan>5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">年期是否进一步冲向\u003C\u002Fspan>5.5%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，原油能否持续站稳\u003C\u002Fspan>100\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元之上，核心通胀是否重新反弹，以及美联储是否重新开始讨论加息。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">如果这些条件持续强化，美股可能会从过去的\u003C\u002Fspan>“AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">慢牛\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，逐渐进入\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">高波动震荡牛\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">阶段。短期，也就是下周可能会出现一波\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的回调，虽然指数未必会大崩，但高估值成长股的波动会明显加剧，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">板块内部会开始大分化，真正具备盈利能力和现金流的公司会胜出，而纯概念驱动的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">股票则可能逐渐被市场出清。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">因此，未来市场真正可能走强的方向，反而可能是那些现金流强劲的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">公司，以及电力基础设施、能源、防御型价值股、短久期资产和高股息现金流资产，而不再只是那些\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">只讲故事\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">概念股。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSPY\u002FSPY.jpg","2026-05-16T21:44:44","2026.05.16","2026\u002F05\u002F16",42923,[22],"SPY","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]