[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio9c893c08":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio9c893c08","美股跌美债也跌，六十年的对冲逻辑正在失效！","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio9c893c08","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>先说结论：美股和美债的关系变了。过去几十年，美股跌的时候美债通常涨，这是\u003C\u002Fspan>60\u002F40\u003Cspan>组合能成立的前提。但现在这个对冲效应正在消失。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>我最近看了一张图，展示的是美股收益率和美债收益率之间的相关性——已经转负了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>翻译一下：以前美股跌，美债价格涨，两者负相关，所以美债能对冲美股的风险。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>现在变成正相关了——美股跌的时候，美债也跟着跌。长期美债不再是美股下跌时的有效对冲工具。这直接削弱了市场对美债的需求，推高了收益率。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>到底发生了什么\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>过去二十年债券的回报一直很差。但当利率高到一定程度，债券就不再是垃圾了。当前十年期美债收益率在什么位置，你自己看——已经不再是过去那种“赚不到钱”的水平了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>更值得关注的是资金流向的变化。一旦美股和美债同跌，\u003C\u002Fspan>60\u002F40\u003Cspan>组合就失去了对冲功能。那个“分散化配置”的资金需要重新找地方去。历史上这些钱会流向黄金和实物资产。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>黄金现在站上\u003C\u002Fspan>4300\u003Cspan>美元，而且是在利率还在往上走的情况下。这本身就是市场在告诉你——那些从\u003C\u002Fspan>60\u002F40\u003Cspan>里撤出来的钱，正在往黄金里搬。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>市场真正在交易什么\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这不是简单的“看多黄金”或“看空美债”。市场在交易的是一个结构性转变——过去四十年的股债负相关关系可能正在被打破。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美债在某些条件下仍然是好的对冲工具——比如通缩性衰退。但问题在于，当前的环境是通胀性的。一旦通胀粘在那里，美股和美债同跌就会成为常态，而不是意外。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这事对资产配置的影响是根本性的。\u003C\u002Fspan>60\u002F40\u003Cspan>组合的“免费午餐”——用美债抵消美股波动——可能不再免费了。那些靠这个公式管理千亿美元资金的机构，必须重新思考底层逻辑。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>接下来验证什么\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>两个信号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第一个是通胀数据。如果核心通胀持续高于\u003C\u002Fspan>3%\u003Cspan>，美联储没法大幅降息，美债就难以提供对冲功能。我个人预计\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan>年下半年美联储会加快降息，但如果通胀不下来，这个预期就兑现不了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第二个是黄金能否在利率高位稳住。目前金价在\u003C\u002Fspan>4300\u003Cspan>美元以上伴随美债收益率上行，这本身就是异常现象——通常利率涨黄金跌。如果这个背离持续，说明资金流入黄金的逻辑足够强，不是短线投机。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网更倾向于关注的是：如果通缩性衰退真的来了，美债的对冲功能会重新回来。但在这之前，美股和美债同跌的环境下，我会重点盯黄金和实物资产这条线的资金流向。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>判断失效的条件很简单——\u003C\u002Fspan>CPI\u003Cspan>连续三个月低于\u003C\u002Fspan>2.5%\u003Cspan>，同时美联储开始明确转鸽。那时候美债重新成为避险资产，\u003C\u002Fspan>60\u002F40\u003Cspan>组合的对冲功能恢复，黄金的这轮逻辑就得重新评估。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>在那之前，这张图指向的那个问题——当美股和美债一起跌的时候，你的钱到底放在哪——是每个做配置的人都绕不开的。\u003C\u002Fspan>#\u003Cspan>美债\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$MSFT 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]