[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio8f8ccdb1":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio8f8ccdb1","轰轰烈烈，美股投资者正在经历“前所未有的超级 “FOMO”","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio8f8ccdb1","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">上周，美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">硬件板块几乎全线暴涨。尤其是存储、\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Intel\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">产业链，以及光通信上游材料与设备方向，涨势已经不只是\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">“\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">强\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，而更像是一种传统估值框架被直接击穿后的重估。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，现在正在发生什么？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">这部分围绕\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">表达。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">（\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">）\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Dario\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">说：“\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">原本只计划实现\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\"> 10 \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">倍增长，但却遭遇了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">80\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">倍的增长冲击”，内部称这为“成功灾难”…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Dario Amodei\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">兴奋的语无伦次：公司原本按\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年最多\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\"> 10 \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">倍增长来准备。结果\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2026\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">季度，收入和使用量如果按年化算，直接干爆到了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">80 \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">倍…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">这意味着：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">去年的算力投入预案，被用户火爆的需求击穿了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">8\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">倍。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">看一张图，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">OSS Capital\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">创始人\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Joseph Jacks\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">对于\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic vs Google\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的收入测算：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">他认为在\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2028\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年中，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的营收会超越\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Google\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2029\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年会\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">倍于\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Google\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">。对于\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">ARR\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的测算，去年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">90\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美金、今年底\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1000\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美金、明年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">3400\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美金…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">从上面看不到\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">之前\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">ARR\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">轨迹：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2024\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">月：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">8700\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">万美元\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:'Segoe UI Symbol', sans-serif;font-size:large;\">⠀\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2024\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年底：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">10\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美元\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:'Segoe UI Symbol', sans-serif;font-size:large;\">⠀\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2025\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年底：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">90\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美元\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:'Segoe UI Symbol', sans-serif;font-size:large;\">⠀\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2026\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">月：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">140\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美元\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2026\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">4\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">月：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">300\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美元…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2026\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年底：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1000\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿美元…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">这显然不是我们之前理解的指数增长，他这个增长形态，实际的营收和\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">ARR\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">预测上调，相差是\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2-3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">个月级别，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2026\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年底预测\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2027\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1000\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿，很可能\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2027\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Q1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">干了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">300\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿，然后\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">月上调\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">ARR\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">到\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1500\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">亿…所以\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">才要去弄\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">SpaceX\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">22w\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">卡算力，正好现成，一拍即合。甚至于，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Dario\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">也开始另类\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">FOMO\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">：“我希望\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">80\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">倍的增长不要持续…”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">一切都在以另一个次元、超越现有世界资源和人类最疯狂想象的方式发生…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">（\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">）另一个次元的不只是\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Claude\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">一直到\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">4\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">月底，在\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Coding\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">领域，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Claude\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">对比\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Codex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的日安装量保持了碾压…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">但事情显然没有结束：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">5\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">月初\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Codex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">直接把\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Claude\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">给秒杀了，硅谷很多工程师认为\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Codex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">更高效、更经济、更好用。这里面有很多原因（大家可以去查查发生了什么）不多讨论，但有一点可以肯定：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Coding\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">战争并没有结束，对资源的消耗将会持续以年\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">10X\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">级别连续增长…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，对于\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">硬件全球投资者为什么集体\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">FOMO\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">（\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">）大量传统资金和投资者的心理防线以及估值框架被击溃了…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">过去一直将\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">视为高\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">CapEx\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">泡沫，看不到收入，或者说“想不出怎么覆盖过去的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Capex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">”一直挂在大量投资者心里，直到\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">ARR\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">指引，心理防线到估值框架的一切都被击碎…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">过去我们的金融模型确实无法从营收（甚至不是利润）角度覆盖\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Capex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，但却忽视了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">调用量“超指数级放大”和\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">CodingAgent\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">带来的利润池重写。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">过去我们对于产业成长的判断，一般分为\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">0->1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1->10\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，以及成熟期…现在转变为：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">0->1\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">1->1000\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2026\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">年是\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Agent AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">自主决策大放异彩的元年，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">正从被动互动式的回答问题，全面向主动执行任务和介入企业、个人工作流转变。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">比如\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">会对自己的客户从人力资源以及重写工作流程的方向进行优化。如果接受不了\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">（或者无法胜任），直接裁掉，招聘新人…这些新人不需要培训，天然就要使用\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Claude\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，毫无屏障。整个公司的工作流由\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">来打造，要么微软是被什么给冲击的？你哪个产品给打工人，结果打工人被\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">优化了…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">（\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">2\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">）这轮\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">产业的变迁与互联网截然不同，核心逻辑是用\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Capex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">购买未来超级利润池控制权\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">头部公司并非持续烧钱换用户然后开启广告、金融等等流量变现，而是用\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Capex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">购买未来超级利润池控制权，这个利润池将全社会大部分财富，积聚在少数几个企业手里。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">这次真正落后于市场的，是手握旧估值框架的大量传统机构，以及曾经掌握大量财富的\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Old money\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">。市场对\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Capex\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">是否能有回报、有多少回报这些不确定的担忧，被\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Anthropic\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的表现彻底打消，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">成为生产力的底层催化后利润曲线变的异常陡峭，这是生产函数底层逻辑发生了根本变化。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">（\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">）现在这轮行情，下一阶段推动力将是场外的高财富人群和大资金的被迫补仓。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">观点很明确：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">这次\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">FOMO\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">程度最强、最恐慌的不是中产，而是掌握更高财富量的人群，这是最大的认知差。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">曾经的传统行业高管以及财富拥有者，有大量人士面对\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">进化速度如此之快毫无准备，只能通过投资参与\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">…大量传统机构也一样，因为承认\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">很可能需要改变过去已有的投资范式和客户结构，甚至承认\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">冲击了此前的投资标的，最终可能导致投资失败。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">但最终结果都一样，从“怀疑泡沫”、“不愿相信”转向“承认低配”，然后就是落后资金进行\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">FOMO\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的重新定价。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">3\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，之后会发生什么？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">全球新一轮算力资源全面配置，世界资源向顶级智能和算力资源堆砌，为的就是不被世界所淘汰。重点发生的两个国度：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">中国和美国。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">大\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">CSP\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">先投，投不动了政府投，然后中东王爷主权基金投，印钞机哗啦啦开启，用“纸”换人类终极时代的话语权。我们已经看到，中东王爷正在持续加大对我们中国科技资产的投资…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">后面\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">的冲击会以一种隐秘而剧烈的方式而发生，大量金领以及高管被优化（不一定是裁员），很多人可能感受不到，但就是会这么发生。当然，\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">覆盖不了人的违法成本，敢承担法律责任、甚至坐牢的最顶层人员价值会陡增。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">4\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，我们该怎么做？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">先看大厂在做什么…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">NV\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">面对上游资源的这种需求状态，不是在等报价，是在抢产能，各种锁定供应。最新和康宁签订的光连接和光纤产能就是延伸，未来\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">Google\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">以及其他大厂包括国内大\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">CSP\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，也会做同样的事儿。下一阶段，我们会看到大\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">CSP\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">去锁定国内存储、光通信等等领域的真实动作，会进一步刺激市场情绪。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">现在整个算力的资源供给，集中在中美，以及其他国家和地区的少数企业手里，未来这种产能锁定会超越\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">zz\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">不睦，急不可待。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">中美也会在持续的对抗、合作中，互相找到平衡，共同锁定整个资源的最佳配置，而其他国家那就只能自求多福了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">我们能做的很简单，要么下场参与\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">，要么\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size:large;\">All in AI\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family:DengXian;font-size:large;\">资源，无论是智能本身还是硬件资源，因为供给是线性的，需求是“超指数级（甚至越迁）”。很朴素，但我确定面对市场波动，很多朋友依然会担心泡沫…\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202605-stk\u002FUploaderwu0psplokgq_2026_05_10_22_04_16.jpeg","2026-05-11T01:48:45","2026.05.11","2026\u002F05\u002F11",54646,[22],"SPY","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure 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href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":68,"summaryHtml":73,"aboutTitle":74,"aboutHtml":75,"copyrightHtml":76},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fplan",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":60,"url":61},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":63,"url":64},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":66,"url":67},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[69,70,71,72],"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwebsiteblob.blob.core.windows.net\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]