[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio81873b8a":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio81873b8a","美股SMCI财报前瞻","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio81873b8a","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>SMCI \u003Cspan>将于周二盘后公布\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan>财年第四季度财报。这份财报不仅将决定超微电脑短期股价走向，更是市场判断\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>算力链景气度能否持续的重要风向标。期权市场定价显示，财报发布后股价可能出现约\u003C\u002Fspan>13.4%\u003Cspan>的双向波动，交易员正以创纪录的看涨期权押注上行，同时在关键价位建立下行保护。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>财报核心矛盾：毛利率\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>爆表\u003C\u002Fspan>”VS\u003Cspan>营收\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>不达标\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>超微电脑\u003C\u002Fspan> SMCI 7\u003Cspan>月末披露的初步业绩呈现出一组看似矛盾的数据组合：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>营收端：\u003C\u002Fspan>Q4\u003Cspan>营收预计落在先前\u003C\u002Fspan>110\u003Cspan>亿至\u003C\u002Fspan>125\u003Cspan>亿美元指引区间的低端。分析师普遍预期\u003C\u002Fspan>Q4\u003Cspan>营收为\u003C\u002Fspan>115.6\u003Cspan>亿美元，同比增长\u003C\u002Fspan>101%\u003Cspan>。过去五个季度中，超微电脑有四次营收未达预期。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>利润端：毛利率预计在\u003C\u002Fspan>15%\u003Cspan>至\u003C\u002Fspan>17%\u003Cspan>之间，远超此前给出的\u003C\u002Fspan>8.2%\u003Cspan>至\u003C\u002Fspan>8.4%\u003Cspan>指引。分析师预期\u003C\u002Fspan>Q4\u003Cspan>每股收益为\u003C\u002Fspan>0.96\u003Cspan>美元，同比增长\u003C\u002Fspan>134%\u003Cspan>。过去三个月，分析师对每股收益的预期上调了\u003C\u002Fspan>16\u003Cspan>次，下调次数为零。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这一\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>营收低端、毛利率翻倍\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan>的组合，指向同一个逻辑：\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>算力供不应求的格局正在重塑产业链的利润分配。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>Wedbush\u003Cspan>分析师\u003C\u002Fspan>Matt Bryson\u003Cspan>梳理了三大核心动因：供不应求\u003C\u002Fspan>——6\u003Cspan>月至\u003C\u002Fspan>7\u003Cspan>月间\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>主板、算力硬件持续供不应求\u003C\u002Fspan>;\u003Cspan>定价优势\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>硬件供给紧缺让超微电脑在整机环节掌握定价主动权\u003C\u002Fspan>;\u003Cspan>结构优化\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>部分大客户数据中心项目延期，反而间接拉高了高毛利产品的销售占比。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>期权市场：\u003C\u002Fspan>13.4%\u003Cspan>波动预期，看涨情绪占据主导\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>期权市场正在为一场剧烈波动定价，超微电脑\u003C\u002Fspan> SMCI \u003Cspan>周一收涨超\u003C\u002Fspan>1%\u003Cspan>，报\u003C\u002Fspan>31.46\u003Cspan>美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>月\u003C\u002Fspan>14\u003Cspan>日到期的期权链显示，\u003C\u002Fspan>32\u003Cspan>美元平值跨式期权组合\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>同时买入行权价最接近当前股价的看涨和看跌期权\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003Cspan>成本约为\u003C\u002Fspan>4.31\u003Cspan>美元，对应预期股价在周五到期前约\u003C\u002Fspan>13.4%\u003Cspan>的波动幅度。按周一收盘价计算，这一波动意味着股价可能跌至\u003C\u002Fspan>27.89\u003Cspan>美元或涨至\u003C\u002Fspan>36.51\u003Cspan>美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>看涨期权集中度极高，表明市场参与者存在大量的上行押注。未平仓合约量最高的是\u003C\u002Fspan>31\u003Cspan>美元看涨期权\u003C\u002Fspan>24,299\u003Cspan>份\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003Cspan>，紧随其后的是\u003C\u002Fspan>33.5\u003Cspan>美元看涨期权\u003C\u002Fspan>22,455\u003Cspan>份\u003C\u002Fspan>)\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>40\u003Cspan>美元深度价外看涨期权的未平仓合约也高达\u003C\u002Fspan>13,188\u003Cspan>份。周一盘中交易中，\u003C\u002Fspan>35\u003Cspan>美元看涨期权成交量超过\u003C\u002Fspan>8,500\u003Cspan>份，\u003C\u002Fspan>33\u003Cspan>美元看涨期权成交量超过\u003C\u002Fspan>5,800\u003Cspan>份。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>看跌期权方面，交易员在\u003C\u002Fspan>28\u003Cspan>美元和\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan>美元行权价附近建立了短期支撑保护。\u003C\u002Fspan>28\u003Cspan>美元看跌期权未平仓合约\u003C\u002Fspan>4,772\u003Cspan>份，\u003C\u002Fspan>30\u003Cspan>美元看跌期权\u003C\u002Fspan>3,581\u003Cspan>份，\u003C\u002Fspan>29\u003Cspan>美元看跌期权成交量超过\u003C\u002Fspan>2,000\u003Cspan>份，反映出部分交易者正在为可能的下行风险建立保护。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>华尔街对超微电脑\u003C\u002Fspan> SMCI \u003Cspan>的分歧同样显著。\u003C\u002Fspan>Visible Alpha\u003Cspan>追踪的五位分析师中，仅一位给予\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>买入\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan>评级，两位\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>中性\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan>，两位\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>卖出\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan>，平均目标价约\u003C\u002Fspan>34\u003Cspan>美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>Mizuho\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>Vijay Rakesh\u003Cspan>维持\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>中性\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan>评级及\u003C\u002Fspan>34\u003Cspan>美元目标价\u003C\u002Fspan>;Rosenblatt\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>Kevin Cassidy\u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan>Needham\u003Cspan>的\u003C\u002Fspan>Quinn Bolton\u003Cspan>则分别给出\u003C\u002Fspan>45\u003Cspan>美元和\u003C\u002Fspan>46\u003Cspan>美元的买入评级。\u003C\u002Fspan>S&P Global\u003Cspan>统计的\u003C\u002Fspan>19\u003Cspan>位分析师共识评级为\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>持有\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan>，平均目标价\u003C\u002Fspan>37.81\u003Cspan>美元。最高目标价\u003C\u002Fspan>64\u003Cspan>美元，最低\u003C\u002Fspan>24\u003Cspan>美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>关键悬念：\u003C\u002Fspan>600\u003Cspan>亿美元订单的转化能力\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>超微电脑\u003C\u002Fspan> SMCI Q4\u003Cspan>新增订单超过\u003C\u002Fspan>600\u003Cspan>亿美元，积压订单创历史新高。这一数字是营收指引低端的五倍以上。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>然而，公司警告部分订单可能不代表确定的承诺，仍存在取消或延迟风险。交货时间表及营运资金需求因此成为焦点\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>第三季度营运消耗\u003C\u002Fspan>66\u003Cspan>亿美元现金，手头现金仅\u003C\u002Fspan>13\u003Cspan>亿美元，另有\u003C\u002Fspan>88\u003Cspan>亿美元的债务及可转换债券。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>此外，董事会的独立出口管制审查仍在进行中，管理层警告这可能影响财测、初步结果及先前各期数据。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>更大的背景：\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>算力链景气度的\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>试金石\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>超微电脑\u003C\u002Fspan> SMCI \u003Cspan>的财报之所以备受关注，是因为它不仅是公司自身的业绩检验，更是整个\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>算力链景气度的\u003C\u002Fspan>“\u003Cspan>试金石\u003C\u002Fspan>”\u003Cspan>。作为英伟达服务器的核心代工厂商，其大额订单增长直接映射了头部云厂商与\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>公司的算力需求扩张。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>过去\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan>个月，超微电脑股价仍下跌约\u003C\u002Fspan>30%\u003Cspan>，表现落后于慧与科技\u003C\u002Fspan>+160%)\u003Cspan>和戴尔科技\u003C\u002Fspan>+230%)\u003Cspan>。这份财报将决定股价能否企稳回升\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>投资者将密切关注实际营收、积压订单的构成和出货时间表。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>超微电脑的\u003C\u002Fspan>Q4\u003Cspan>财报，是一场关于\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>算力链利润分配逻辑的关键检验。毛利率近乎翻倍的指引与营收落在低端的预警，共同指向同一个信号\u003C\u002Fspan>——\u003Cspan>在\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>硬件供不应求的格局下，整机制造商的定价权正在重塑盈利结构。对于投资者而言，超微电脑的这份财报不仅是检验其自身投资价值的分水岭，更是判断整个\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan>算力链景气度能否持续的关键风向标。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSMCI\u002FSMCI.jpg","2026-08-11T19:11:31","2026.08.11","2026\u002F08\u002F11",36622,[22],"SMCI","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]