[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio7a2eac8a":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio7a2eac8a","“大空头”伯里做空卡特彼勒(CAT)获利近300%后大幅减仓-增长前景蒙阴之际估值压力恐连续","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio7a2eac8a","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网获悉，因精准预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的投资者迈克尔·伯里透露，他已将针对工程机械制造商卡特彼勒(CAT)的看跌头寸削减75%。伯里表示，其持有的看跌期权收益已接近原来的4倍，因此他选择锁定大部分利润，同时保留较小规模的头寸。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>伯里在其Substack文章中表示“我的卡特彼勒看跌期权价值大约增长了4倍，而今天我将其仓位削减了75%。因此，目前这一头寸的市值大致回到了我在第二季度末建立该头寸时的美元金额水平。”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>在伯里看来，经济增长放缓、基础设施支出疲软以及设备需求下降，将对卡特彼勒的盈利造成冲击。他认为，该公司目前强劲的盈利最终将回落至正常水平，进而对其股票估值形成压力，并引发股价大幅下跌。不过，伯里如今大幅削减其对卡特彼勒看跌期权的举动可能意味着，他认为该股股价进一步下跌的空间有限，因此这笔看跌交易的吸引力有所下降。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>卡特彼勒正面临增长放缓、人工智能(AI)支出前景不确定以及生产瓶颈等方面的担忧。目前，卡特彼勒股价较6月高点已下跌约47%。该股估值已从今年早些时候接近预期盈利的39倍，降至目前约19倍，反映出市场对其未来增长的预期有所降低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>卡特彼勒上月底公布的2026年第三季度业绩显示，受销量增长与价格实现推动，当季营收同比增长17%至206.8亿美元。其中，电力与能源板块营收同比增长18%至87.8亿美元。盈利方面，调整后每股收益7.20美元，高于市场预期的约7.03美元。营业利润42.1亿美元、同比增长38%，营业利润率20.4%;调整后营业利润率20.6%，较上年同期提升3.1个百分点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>尽管卡特彼勒第三季度盈利表现超出市场预期，但投资者仍担忧其营收增长放缓、以及公司能否满足不断增长的需求。尽管AI数据中心对发电机和电力设备的需求依然强劲，但卡特彼勒仍维持了2026年营收增长中个位数至高十几百分比的预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>与此同时，卡特彼勒正面临产能限制，难以跟上订单增长的步伐。该公司订单积压规模达到创纪录的781亿美元，但增幅低于市场预期。此外，市场对AI热潮、关税以及柴油价格上涨的担忧日益加剧，也削弱了投资者对卡特彼勒股价前景的信心。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>摩根士丹利便在上月底发布的研报中将卡特彼勒目标价由915美元大幅下调至675美元，明确判断该股已从AI主题推动的估值扩张，正式转入“周期性估值回调”阶段。该行虽维持“持股观望”评级与“具有吸引力”的行业观点，但直言市场早已把股价定价到“完美”水平、容错空间所剩无几。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>DA Davidson则将卡特彼勒目标价从882美元下调至685美元，但维持“中性”评级。该行表示，卡特彼勒旗下三个业务部门在第三季度均实现强劲增长，订单积压规模较去年同期增长96%。不过，该行同时指出，该股估值仍比同行业公司高出50%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>相比之下，在Stocktwits平台上，散户投资者对卡特彼勒的情绪仍维持“看涨”。不过，也有持谨慎态度的该平台用户表示“向数据中心销售发电机确实能带来实实在在的营收，直到这些数据中心停止下单为止。设备行业的周期似乎总是以同样的方式结束——订单积压看起来似乎永无止境，但就在取消订单开始悄然出现之前，市场往往还没有意识到这一点。”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]