[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio79a051c2":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio79a051c2","新款-Roadster-跳票九年终于定档！晨星维持特斯拉(TSLA)450美元目标价：超跑不是估值逻辑，FSD、Robotaxi-与-Optimus-才是","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio79a051c2","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网注意到，近日，特斯拉(TSLA)在社交平台发帖，宣布新一代Roadster跑车将于10月1日发布。这是自 2017 年 11 月原型车首次亮相以来，特斯拉第一次给出带具体日期、且附有正式邀请函的公开活动时间。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>在其备受期待的超级跑车即将亮相之际，晨星对 Roadster 事件的最新表态相当明确。维持特斯拉3 星评级与 450 美元的公允价值估计不变，经济护城河评级为\"窄\"，不确定性评级为\"极高\"。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>针对 Roadster 本身，晨星的定调是“光环车型”特斯拉年初已停产 Model S 和 Model X 以为 Optimus 人形机器人腾出产能，Roadster 将接过\"展示特斯拉最强工程实力\"的品牌角色。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但晨星预计其年销量仅约 2000 辆，相比其对公司近百万辆量级的年度交付预测几乎可以忽略。该行表示，\"我们的预测本来就已假设 Roadster 投产\"，即该事件不构成估值上修的理由。晨星维持 450 美元公允价值的真正依据仍是三大支柱FSD 软件订阅（约 130 万订阅用户）、Robotaxi 网络，以及 Optimus 人形机器人。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>“光环车型”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>一个颇具代表性的事实是覆盖特斯拉的最新研报中，没有一家把 Roadster 的销量或利润纳入估值模型。多数机构将其定性为\"注意力与叙事催化剂，而非盈利催化剂\"。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>The Information 测算，即便按 1 万辆 × 25 万美元计，约 25 亿美元收入也仅相当于特斯拉 2026 年营收一致预期（约 1,052 亿美元）的 2.4%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>NeoData 数据的数据显示，截至2026年9月 38 家机构对特斯拉的目标均价 377.40 美元，评级分布为买入\u002F增持 44%、持有 46%、减持\u002F卖出 10%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>分歧的实质与 Roadster 无关，而在自动驾驶与机器人叙事。 看多方中，Wedbush的分析师Dan Ives给予特斯拉的最新目标价为 600 美元；Piper Sandler(目标价500 美元)的分部估值模型认为 Optimus 与\"推理即服务\"的价值可能超过其余业务总和；摩根士丹利的牛市情景目标价高达 840 美元，但其 400 美元基准目标价中 Robotaxi 就占了约 120 美元(30%)。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>看空方中，富国银行给出 130 美元，核心担忧是2026 年超 250 亿美元的资本开支、汽车主业竞争加剧，以及 FSD\u002FRobotaxi 商业化时间表的高度不确定性。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>对投资者而言，机构观点给出的启示是Roadster 能否上媒体头条并不决定特斯拉的估值，决定估值的是那三个老问题FSD 能否落地、Robotaxi 能否规模化、巨额资本开支何时换回现金流。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockWe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa> 每天处理千万级股票数据：捕捉期权大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准交易信号第一时间发到您手机APP！\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FT\u002FTSLA\u002FTSLA.jpg","2026-09-21T14:10:23","2026.09.21","2026\u002F09\u002F21",49612,[22],"TSLA","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]