[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio6a8882a3":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio6a8882a3","美联储不应该在石油冲击的时候收紧政策！","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio6a8882a3","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>油价上涨是因为伊朗危机还在发酵，没有要结束的意思。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为债券市场的反应也在意料之中：原油价格走高，通胀预期上升，\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>年期美债收益率跟着涨。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>然后大家就得出了一个熟悉的结论——美联储必须保持鹰派，甚至可能要继续加息。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但这个结论是错的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>石油冲击不代表国内需求过热。它本质上是对经济征收的一笔“外部税”——削弱了家庭的购买力，推高了运输成本和原材料成本，压缩了企业利润，抑制了消费。通胀的冲击是立竿见影的，但对增长的伤害也会紧随其后。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这就是为什么货币政策不应该机械地对整体通胀数据做出反应。美联储又不会钻油、不会保障航运通道、也解决不了地缘政治危机。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>它能做的是什么？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>是打压房地产、削减资本支出、抑制招聘。因为能源供给冲击而加息，并不会压低原油价格，只会让外部供给冲击之上再加一重内部需求冲击。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>数据本身已经在提醒大家要克制了。最新修订的\u003C\u002Fspan>JOLTS\u003Cspan>数据表明劳动力市场在走弱，核心\u003C\u002Fspan>PCE\u003Cspan>通胀也还算温和。这些都不是再来一轮“货币惩罚”的理由。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>但华尔街的一部分人，甚至美联储内部有些人，还是急着想把加息的叙事重新搬出来。这里面有心理因素——\u003C\u002Fspan>70\u003Cspan>年代的通胀创伤让大家形成了过度反应的倾向：每次油价一涨，就觉得通胀螺旋要来了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>可现在不是\u003C\u002Fspan>70\u003Cspan>年代。没有大范围的工资指数化，没有核心通胀失控的迹象，也没有明确信号表明通胀预期已经脱锚。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>更可能出现的风险是，消费者在本来就面临高利率和生活成本上升的情况下，进一步缩减开支。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>信贷市场目前还没有拉响警报，\u003C\u002Fspan>BBB\u003Cspan>级债券的期权调整利差仍然很低，说明投资者认为眼下还不至于出大问题。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>但这绝不能成为继续加息的借口——只能说金融条件还没崩，不代表它不会崩。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美联储应该抵制住这种冲动，别去迎合债券市场那个粗糙的通胀叙事。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>石油本质上是一个披着通胀外衣的增长冲击。把它当作收紧政策的理由，是把政策错误包装成了审慎。\u003C\u002Fspan>#\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan> 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]