[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio5771da38":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio5771da38","超级铜周期“吃不透”：必和必拓(BHP)业绩前夕遭多头降温，分析师集体放弃看涨","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio5771da38","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网注意到，在周二公布全年业绩之前，分析师对必和必拓(BHP)的看涨情绪有所降温，针对其悉尼上市股票的买入推荐数量降至历史新低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>在彭博跟踪的30家经纪商中，仅有4家对这家全球最大矿业巨头的股票给出了“买入”评级。包括里昂证券、花旗集团和Morgans Financial Ltd.在内的机构，在过去一年中均已放弃了看涨姿态。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>花旗集团自至少去年10月起就对该股保持中立态度。由埃弗雷姆·拉维领导的分析师团队在6月的一份报告中写道，这一评级是相对于同业而言的，因为他们认为嘉能可更能受益于铜价的反弹。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>上个月必和必拓公布了较为疲软的铜产量指引后，市场对其盈利预期也有所放缓。该公司表示，由于南美矿山矿石品位下降，预计在从7月开始的新财年中，铜产量将降至最低165万吨。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>ETF Shares首席投资官大卫·塔克韦尔表示“分析师担心，产量缩减意味着必和必拓无法充分抓住这些创纪录的铜价红利。”他补充称，该股票目前看起来价格偏高。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>数据显示，该公司的远期市盈率约为17倍，而五年平均水平约为11倍。今年以来，必和必拓股价已累计上涨35%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>超级铜周期“吃不透”\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>尽管受益于过去一年铜价高位震荡与铁矿石出货量的强劲表现，市场预计必和必拓全年营业收入将达到578亿美元(同比增长约13%)，归母净利润预计达126亿美元(同比增长约24%)，EBITDA预计达324亿美元，但华尔街对其未来的看涨热情却降至了历史冰点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>分析师观点的集体转向，揭示出市场对这家矿业巨头深层次的担忧高估值压力、旗舰产能放缓以及资本开支超支。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>首先，“量价背离”成为削弱市场信心的主要诱因。作为公司核心盈利引擎之一，铜业务本应搭乘全球铜价暴涨的东风，但必和必拓上月公布的产量指引却给市场浇了一盆冷水。受南美矿山(尤其是Escondida矿)矿石品位下降影响，公司预计新财年铜产量将下滑至165万吨至180万吨的区间。在铜价屡创新高的当下，产量缩减意味着必和必拓无法完全吃到本轮大宗商品的上涨红利，甚至面临产能承压下的成本上升困境。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>其次，估值溢价大幅拉升了业绩履约的门槛。数据显示，必和必拓目前的远期市盈率已升至17倍左右，远高于约11倍的五年历史均值，年内累计涨幅达35%。在估值已被充分计入的背景下，市场容错率极低。相比之下，分析师更看好嘉能可等同业在铜价反弹中的弹性与风险收益比。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>此外，新兴业务的资本开支隐忧也拖累了法定利润表现。尽管西澳铁矿石业务(WAIO)依然以破纪录的产量扮演着现金流“定海神针”的角色，但加拿大Jansen钾肥项目二期预算从49亿美元飙升至69亿美元，且投产推迟至2031财年。随之而来的约23亿美元减值准备，直接给公司的法定净利润蒙上了阴影。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>展望即将发布的全年财报，市场将重点关注三点一是智利与阿根廷铜矿项目的品位恢复与降本策略；二是现金流充沛背景下，股息派发能否给投资者带来惊喜(预估每股派息1.60美元)；三是管理层在并购拓展与资本分配上的最新表态。在产能瓶颈与高估值双重考量下，必和必拓若想重新赢回资本市场的青睐，仅靠大宗商品的“天时”已然不够，更需展现出精细化运营与成本控制的“人为”硬实力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]