[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio385d6d1b":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio385d6d1b","标普500股息率跑输国债，比例仅剩4%，逼近2008年危机前夜","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio385d6d1b","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网追踪到一组最新发布的数据，正在向市场传递一个被严重低估的信号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>目前，标准普尔\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>指数中，股息收益率高于\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>年期国债收益率的股票，占比仅有约\u003C\u002Fspan>4%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>上一次出现如此极端的比例，还是在\u003C\u002Fspan>2008\u003Cspan>年金融危机爆发之前。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>把时间拉回到\u003C\u002Fspan>2016\u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan>7\u003Cspan>月，当时的情况几乎完全颠倒——接近三分之二（约\u003C\u002Fspan>63.4%\u003Cspan>）的标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>成分股，股息率都高于\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>年期国债。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>那个时代，超低利率让股票成为追逐收益的资金唯一去处。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>然而今天，画面彻底翻转了。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>截至\u003C\u002Fspan>2026\u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan>8\u003Cspan>月底，整个标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>中，股息率跑赢\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>年期国债的股票，只剩区区\u003C\u002Fspan>16\u003Cspan>只。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>而\u003C\u002Fspan>10\u003Cspan>年期国债收益率目前接近\u003C\u002Fspan>4.7%\u003Cspan>，标普\u003C\u002Fspan>500\u003Cspan>的平均股息率却只有约\u003C\u002Fspan>1.05%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这意味着，“无风险”的政府债券，现在提供的收益是美股整体大盘的四倍以上。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>更值得玩味的是，那些曾经被视为“现金奶牛”的超级巨头——英伟达、苹果、\u003C\u002Fspan>Alphabet\u003Cspan>——如今也赫然列在股息率跑输国债的\u003C\u002Fspan>118\u003Cspan>家大型公司名单之中。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>国债重新夺回“收益王冠”，这背后并非偶然。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>一方面，美国国债规模已突破\u003C\u002Fspan>40\u003Cspan>万亿美元，庞大的供给推高了收益率。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>另一方面，通胀阴霾未散，布伦特原油一度升至每桶\u003C\u002Fspan>93\u003Cspan>美元以上，投资者对低固定收益的容忍度持续走低。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>与此同时，美股的上涨速度远超股息支付的增速，叠加大量公司偏好回购而非提高分红，共同压低了股票的收益率。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>上一次出现这种极端背离，是在\u003C\u002Fspan>2007\u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan>5\u003Cspan>月。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>随后发生的事情，所有人都知道。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>当然，历史不会简单重复，但这样的信号至少值得警惕。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>当“风险资产”的收益被“无风险资产”远远甩开，资金的天平迟早会发生偏移。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>而天平一旦开始倾斜，最先感知到重量的，永远是那些在高估值中陶醉最久的人。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$AAPL\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$GOOGL\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>#\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FS\u002FSPY\u002FSPY.jpg","2026-09-04T05:14:10","2026.09.04","2026\u002F09\u002F04",33070,[22],"SPY","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]