[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio3551df56":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio3551df56","AI光通信缺货，最上游材料股要爆？","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio3551df56","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美国银行和\u003C\u002Fspan>AXTI\u003Cspan>的这次沟通，核心其实很简单：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AI \u003Cspan>数据中心还在拼命扩张，但最上游的\u003C\u002Fspan> InP \u003Cspan>磷化铟衬底，供应跟不上。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>它可以理解为高端光通信芯片的“底座材料”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>没有足够的\u003C\u002Fspan> InP \u003Cspan>衬底，后面的激光器、光收发器、\u003C\u002Fspan>CPO\u002FNPO \u003Cspan>这些放量都会被卡住。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>这次通话里，\u003C\u002Fspan>AXT \u003Cspan>管理层释放了几个重要信号。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第一，\u003C\u002Fspan>InP \u003Cspan>需求仍然远大于供应。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>客户现在不是想买多少就能买多少，而是处于配给状态。像\u003C\u002Fspan> Lumentum \u003Cspan>这样的客户，正在通过长期供应协议锁定更大供货量。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第二，需求主要来自\u003C\u002Fspan> AI \u003Cspan>数据中心。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AI \u003Cspan>集群越大，对光收发器、激光器和高速互联的需求越高。到\u003C\u002Fspan> 2027 \u003Cspan>年下半年以后，\u003C\u002Fspan>NPO \u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan> CPO \u003Cspan>这些新架构如果开始放量，还可能带来新的增量需求。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>第三，\u003C\u002Fspan>AXT \u003Cspan>的产能上调很明显。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>公司原本目标是把\u003C\u002Fspan> InP \u003Cspan>产能较\u003C\u002Fspan> 2025 \u003Cspan>年第四季度运行率翻倍。现在\u003C\u002Fspan> InP \u003Cspan>收入已经从\u003C\u002Fspan> 2025 \u003Cspan>年第四季度约\u003C\u002Fspan> 1800 \u003Cspan>万美元，提升到\u003C\u002Fspan> 2026 \u003Cspan>年第二季度\u003C\u002Fspan> 3070 \u003Cspan>万美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>管理层最新给出的潜在季度收入运行率，已经从之前约\u003C\u002Fspan> 3500 \u003Cspan>万美元，上调到\u003C\u002Fspan> 2026 \u003Cspan>年底的\u003C\u002Fspan> 6000 \u003Cspan>万至\u003C\u002Fspan> 6500 \u003Cspan>万美元。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这说明供需紧张不是停留在故事层面，而是在真实反映到产能和收入预期里。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>第四，资本开支也在上修。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2026 \u003Cspan>年\u003C\u002Fspan> CapEx \u003Cspan>预计\u003C\u002Fspan> 3000 \u003Cspan>万至\u003C\u002Fspan> 5000 \u003Cspan>万美元，\u003C\u002Fspan>2027 \u003Cspan>年可能超过\u003C\u002Fspan> 1 \u003Cspan>亿美元。对一家上游材料公司来说，这种扩产节奏本身就说明客户需求非常强。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>竞争格局也值得看。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>历史上，\u003C\u002Fspan>AXT \u003Cspan>和\u003C\u002Fspan> Sumitomo \u003Cspan>各自大约占\u003C\u002Fspan> InP \u003Cspan>市场\u003C\u002Fspan> 40% \u003Cspan>份额，\u003C\u002Fspan>JX Advanced Metals \u003Cspan>约\u003C\u002Fspan> 10%\u003Cspan>。\u003C\u002Fspan>AXT \u003Cspan>认为自己能更快扩产，原因在于垂直整合制造、质量口碑，以及内部设计的晶体生长炉。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>这里面最值得关注的一点，是出口许可问题。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AXT \u003Cspan>向中国以外地区发货仍然需要出口许可，但管理层表示，最近几个季度审批流程已经变得更可控，因为政府理解这类业务的周期性流动，以及公司与美国方面的合作能力。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>它并不代表监管风险消失了，但说明最让市场担心的“发不出去货”问题，至少在操作层面比之前更可控。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>美股投资网认为\u003C\u002Fspan> AXTI \u003Cspan>这条线真正的投资逻辑是：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AI \u003Cspan>数据中心扩张\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>→\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>光模块需求上升\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>→\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>激光器需求上升\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>→\u003C\u002Fspan> InP \u003Cspan>衬底成为上游瓶颈。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>如果这个链条继续成立，\u003C\u002Fspan>AXT \u003Cspan>可能不是最显眼的\u003C\u002Fspan> AI \u003Cspan>受益股，但它站在非常靠前的供应链位置。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>接下来要盯三件事：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>InP \u003Cspan>收入能否继续接近\u003C\u002Fspan> 6000 \u003Cspan>万至\u003C\u002Fspan> 6500 \u003Cspan>万美元季度运行率；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>2027 \u003Cspan>年扩产是否顺利推进；\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>出口许可和中国制造路径是否继续保持稳定。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AI \u003Cspan>光通信的机会，不只在光模块成品。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>有时候，真正稀缺的是最上游那块“材料底座”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>$LITE \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>$COHR \u003C\u002Fspan>\u003Cspan>#\u003Cspan>美股\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>\u003Cspan>\n\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>【原创声明】\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>本文由美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）研究团队原创完成。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>原创机构：美股投资网\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>英文品牌：\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>本文基于公开财报、\u003C\u002Fspan>SEC\u003Cspan>文件、市场数据、机构资金、期权交易及产业链信息进行独立分析\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>如需引用本文，请注明：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>“美股投资网（\u003C\u002Fspan>TradesMax.com\u003Cspan>）原创研究”。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp> \u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FA\u002FAXTI\u002FAXTI.jpg","2026-09-05T06:14:59","2026.09.05","2026\u002F09\u002F05",33707,[22],"AXTI","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]