[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio211b05f7":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio211b05f7","德银看好美股年末行情：Q3盈利增速料维持34%，AI与周期增长仍强劲","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio211b05f7","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\n\u003C\u002Fp>\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美股投资网获悉，德意志银行发布2026年三季度美股财报前瞻报告称，推动二季度标普500指数盈利增速升至34%纪录高位的多重顺风在三季度依然强劲，预计三季度增速将维持在34%的水平，不会出现盈利增长减速。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>相比之下，市场一致预期三季度增速为26.7%，隐含较二季度减速7.5个百分点。德银的预测高出一致预期约6个百分点，而历史上财报季的平均超预期幅度仅为3.3%，该行认为本季将再度迎来高于平均水平的超预期表现。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>三大顺风合力驱动\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>德银指出，盈利繁荣源于三大顺风同时发力AI需求增长加速，同比增速达54%，为整体增速贡献20个百分点;周期性增长反弹，剔除科技、能源与材料板块后增速为14%，贡献8个百分点;石油及大宗商品价格走高，推动能源与材料板块盈利增长108%，贡献7个百分点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>需要说明的是，34%的增速已经过调整，剔除了Alphabet出售资产收益及亚马逊投资未实现收益等一次性项目，未调整前的增速高达53%。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>德银和市场的三大分歧\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>AI需求未见减速迹象\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>针对市场关注的AI需求能否延续的问题，德银认为多项指标显示三季度AI需求增长依然非常强劲。该行举例称，韩国半导体生产和出口增速从二季度到三季度进一步加快，GPU租赁价格持续上涨则表明供需状况依然非常紧张。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>韩国半导体出口增速上涨\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>该行预计，AI需求将推动超大盘成长股与科技板块盈利增速在三季度维持54%的高位，且随着其在标普500盈利中的权重上升，对整体增速的贡献将从二季度的19.5个百分点升至21个百分点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>周期性增长进一步加快\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>德银指出，大量指标显示三季度周期性增长进一步走强。美国ISM制造业指数在三季度大幅升至四年半以来最高水平，而该指标历来是标普500盈利增速最好的周期性领先指标。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>美国ISM制造业指数上涨\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>宏观一致预期显示，美国GDP增速将从二季度的2.2%加快至三季度的2.8%(环比折年率)，亚特兰大联储的追踪预测更是高达3.7%。此外，零售销售、工业生产和资本品出货增长保持强劲，周期性就业在2月触底后也持续回升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>油价滞后冲击有限，关税退款再添助力\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>对于高油价的滞后负面影响，德银认为仍然温和且集中在特定板块。研报称，历史上油价冲击对标普500其他板块盈利的影响滞后2至3个季度，且幅度通常温和，因为多数企业会通过提价和提升生产率来应对。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>航空、汽车及部分消费类板块受冲击更快更大，但这些板块的盈利预期自伊朗战争爆发以来已被大幅下修，航空板块下修17%，汽车与包装板块各下修9%，航空以外的旅游板块下修6%。此外，在最高法院裁定IEEPA关税无效后，企业持续获得关税退款，该行预计这将与二季度一样，为三季度整体盈利增速贡献约2个百分点。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>财报季叠加中期选举，年末行情风险回报有利\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>德银强调，财报季历来利好股市。金融危机以来，标普500在四分之三的财报季中上涨，平均涨幅2%，过去一年这一特征更加明显。虽然本季恰逢10月底的FOMC会议和11月初的美国中期选举，可能带来额外波动，但历史模式显示，市场在重大风险事件落地前往往横盘或走弱，落地后则反弹。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>该行还指出，中期选举年第四季度的风险回报历来非常有利，过去23个选举年中有21年标普500在第四季度上涨，平均涨幅达7%。综合来看，该行认为当前美股的风险回报仍然有利。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan>最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 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每天处理千万级股票数据：捕捉期权大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准交易信号第一时间发到您手机APP！\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\n\u003Cp>\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FA\u002FAI\u002FAI.jpg","2026-10-08T12:51:47","2026.10.08","2026\u002F10\u002F08",51268,[22],"AI","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"courseContent":87,"more":88,"buyNow":89,"subscribeNow":90,"encoding":91,"paidContent":92},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]