[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio1988a73b":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":77},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio1988a73b","国泰海通证券：美国Q1经济“有胀无滞”呈K型向上，利率敏感阈值提升美债利率底抬升","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio1988a73b","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">美股投资网获悉，国泰海通证券发布研报称，对一季度美国经济的一个形象描述是“K”字开口略微扩大，但“K”字整体向上移动，整体表现出“有胀无滞”的特征。超预期之处在于美国经济复苏对利率的敏感阈值已经提升，这意味着美债利率的底也有所抬升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">国泰海通证券主要观点如下\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">2026年Q1美国经济“无视”高油价\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">2026年Q1美国实际GDP环比年化增长2.0%（前值0.5%），在高油价下展现出较强的韧性一方面，AI投资继续保持强劲增长，一季度投资环比年化8.7%，其中信息处理设备、软件投资、研发投资增速亮眼；另一方面，2025年Q4因政府关门结转至Q1的政府消费，导致政府消费与投资环比年化大幅增长。一季度美国财政收入和支出同比增长分别为6.8%和2.9%，财政赤字率降至5.1%，但由于利息支出处于高位，政府债务依然增长较快，政府债务与GDP比值已达119%，接近120%大关。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">消费增速有所回落，一定程度上反映了高油价的压制，尤其是对于中低收入群体一是商品消费回落较多，而服务消费表现韧性；二是商品消费中，非耐用品回落更多，耐用品消费持平。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">一季度受到AI投资高景气的影响，进口增长较为迅猛。AI相关商品贸易逆差快速增长至5540亿美元，环比+19%，从GDP核算上形成一定拖累。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">核心GDP增长稳健。剔除进出口、库存变动和政府开支后的“核心GDP”（消费+固定资产投资，更能代表潜在的实际需求）Q1环比折年率回升至2.5%（前值1.8%）。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">“K型分化”收敛进程被中东冲突拖累\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">一是，AI投资高增的同时，住宅投资增速回落；二是，核心零售销售增速回升，而消费者信心仍未企稳；三是，利率敏感型行业（包括采矿、建筑、制造、零售、住宿餐饮）新增就业与总体非农就业的增长缺口没有发生明显收敛。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">一季度数据反映出经济复苏对利率的敏感阈值提升\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">尽管“K型分化”收敛进程被拖累，但高油价并未完全阻断。这点在4月上中旬体现得比较明显10年美债利率从4.4%高位回落至4.25%的同时，30年期抵押贷款固定利率从6.46%降至6.23%，贷款利差在冲突缓和的预期下有着极强的俯冲动能。这也导致美国地产购买和再融资活动在4月上中旬反弹明显。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">上述现象发出了极为重要的信号\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">美国经济复苏对利率的敏感阈值已经提升。这意味着美债利率的底也有所抬升，美国经济并非滞胀，而是“有胀无滞”。因此，就连Miran这位坚定的鸽派理事也称即便在伊朗相关战争推高全球油价之前，通胀走势就已经变得“稍微不那么乐观了”，并下调对降息次数的预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">对美国经济一季度整体表现的一个形象描述是“K”的开口略微扩大，但“K”字整体向上移动。关键在于，“K”的上头和下头要保持一种和谐状态，如果上头上移速度过快，而下头没有跟上，就会发生高利率抑制传统经济和就业的情况，彼时“滞”又会成为主要矛盾。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">风险提示中东地缘局势或使油价面临进一步上冲的风险；沃什就任美联储主席后缩表主张的落地节奏或增加市场波动。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">最专业的美股资讯,推荐美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\">https:\u002F\u002FStockwe.com\u002F\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">如何识别美股市场异常波动？美国机构主力资金买卖情况，出货和吸筹，使用美股投资网VIP会员，2008年成立于美国硅谷，由前纽约证券交易所分析师Ken创立，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化模型，建立了一个股市数据库 \u003Ca 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buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 StockWe.com 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理千万级股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，精准买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":78,"search":79,"searchPlaceholder":79,"hotContent":80,"draft":81,"noData":82,"searchNoData":83,"edit":84,"editVideo":85,"courseContent":86,"more":87,"buyNow":88,"subscribeNow":89,"encoding":90,"paidContent":91},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]