[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-doc-dcio1825d379":3},{"user":4,"document":8,"mainDocument":27,"columnUrl":29,"subscription":30,"footer":42,"text":80},{"isAuthenticated":5,"isAdmin":5,"displayName":6,"avatarUrl":6,"nid":6,"groupLevel":7},false,"",-10,{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":21,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},"dcio1825d379","微软这次财报，可能要让空头彻夜难眠","\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio1825d379","col18178739ee","美股资讯","\u002Fcol\u002Fcol18178739ee","\u003Cp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">微软这次财报，可能要让空头彻夜难眠\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">大摩出了一份微软\u003C\u002Fspan>4Q 26\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">财报前瞻，态度极其强硬，核心就一句话：市场对\u003C\u002Fspan>Azure\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的担忧是多余的。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">先说\u003C\u002Fspan>Azure\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">市场担心增速见顶，大摩直接拍桌子：预计\u003C\u002Fspan>Q4 Azure\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">固定汇率增速将达到\u003C\u002Fspan>41%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，超过公司自己给的\u003C\u002Fspan>39-40%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">指引上限。怎么来的？核心\u003C\u002Fspan>Azure\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">企稳在\u003C\u002Fspan>26%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">，加上\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">贡献\u003C\u002Fspan>19\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">个百分点。关键是，之前一直被卡的“产能限制”正在缓解，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">基础设施投入开始变成真金白银的收入了，不是光烧钱没声响。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">再说\u003C\u002Fspan>Copilot\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">商业模式在进化——不再是纯粹的\u003C\u002Fspan>SaaS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">订阅，而是“基础席位费\u003C\u002Fspan>+\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">消耗量计费”的混合模式。三个增长引擎同时转：席位持续增加（预计超\u003C\u002Fspan>2000\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">万）、客户向更高价的\u003C\u002Fspan>E7\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">版本升级、基于\u003C\u002Fspan>Agent\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的消耗量计费在涨。再加上\u003C\u002Fspan>7\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">月\u003C\u002Fspan>1\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">日刚落地的\u003C\u002Fspan>M365\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">全面提价，大摩测算未来三年\u003C\u002Fspan>ARPU\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">能提升\u003C\u002Fspan>12\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元。这不是一次性的收入脉冲，是持续性的结构性提升。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">市场最担心的资本开支呢？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">华尔街还在纠结\u003C\u002Fspan>Capex\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">会不会失控，大摩说不用慌。三分之二的开支投在\u003C\u002Fspan>GPU\u002FCPU\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">这种短期资产上，直接跟未来几个季度的收入挂钩，不是那种遥遥无期的长期大饼。大摩自己建了个模型，结论是：只要毛利率维持在\u003C\u002Fspan>20%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">以上，\u003C\u002Fspan>AI\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">收入潜力远超华尔街现在保守的预测。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">估值呢？\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">现在MSFT 股价对应\u003C\u002Fspan>FY28\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的\u003C\u002Fspan>GAAP EPS\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">大概\u003C\u002Fspan>16\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍\u003C\u002Fspan>PE\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">。一个\u003C\u002Fspan>16\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">倍\u003C\u002Fspan>PE\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">、增速超\u003C\u002Fspan>20%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">的公司，大摩说被明显低估了，目标价\u003C\u002Fspan>600\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">美元，隐含\u003C\u002Fspan>50%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">上涨空间。财报指引上，预计\u003C\u002Fspan>FY27\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">营业利润率指引会“微降或下降\u003C\u002Fspan>1%\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">”，但实际执行中大概率能实现扩张——管理层惯用的“低开高走”手法。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian; font-size: large;\">总结一下大摩的逻辑链：\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-size: large;\">Azure\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">超预期→\u003C\u002Fspan>Copilot\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">商业化加速→\u003C\u002Fspan>Capex\u003Cspan style=\"font-family: DengXian;\">效率被验证→利润率韧性超预期→估值修复。\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fspan>\u003C\u002Fp>\r\n\u003C\u002Fp>","https:\u002F\u002Fwww.tradesmax.com\u002Fimages\u002Fa_Stock\u002FM\u002FMSFT\u002FMSFT.jpg","2026-07-24T15:36:25","2026.07.24","2026\u002F07\u002F24",38140,[22],"MSFT","Article",0,"免费","success",{"id":9,"fullTitle":10,"subTitle":6,"url":11,"columnId":12,"columnName":13,"columnUrl":14,"summary":6,"contentHtml":15,"mainContentHtml":6,"posterUrl":16,"createDate":17,"displayDate":18,"displayDateSlash":19,"pageviews":20,"tags":28,"hidden":5,"isSubContent":5,"replyDocOrTargetId":6,"contentType":23,"videoId":6,"liveVideoUrl":6,"useContentVideo":5,"duration":24,"price":24,"priceText":25,"priceBadgeText":25,"priceBadgeClass":26,"freeForMinGroupLevel":24,"redirectUrl":6,"readyToStream":5},[22],"\u002Fcol\u002Fstocknews",{"visible":5,"marketingHtml":31,"services":32,"recentDocuments":41},"\u003Cfigure class=\"image\">\u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cimg style=\"display:block;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;\" src=\"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwewebfiles\u002Fweb-202408-stk\u002F1586109431mceclip0.jpg\">\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Ffigure>\u003Cdiv class=\"text-center\">\u003Ch2 class=\"card-title mx-auto\">\u003Cbr>\u003Ca target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002Fdoc\u002Fdcio537efad5\">案例介绍：英伟达深度研究报告\u003C\u002Fa>\u003C\u002Fh2>\u003C\u002Fdiv>",[33,37],{"productId":34,"serviceName":35,"priceText":36},"prod_PPxdDdK87QaiLv","月付","$12.95美元",{"productId":38,"serviceName":39,"priceText":40},"prod_PPxeMs3bix1da5","年付","$149.00美元",[],{"links":43,"images":71,"summaryHtml":76,"aboutTitle":77,"aboutHtml":78,"copyrightHtml":79},[44,47,50,53,56,59,62,65,68],{"label":45,"url":46},"深度报告","\u002Fcol\u002FdepthReport",{"label":48,"url":49},"VIP会员","\u002Fvip",{"label":51,"url":52},"期权推荐","\u002FOption",{"label":54,"url":55},"低价暴涨股","\u002FPenny",{"label":57,"url":58},"AI智能体","\u002FAiAgent",{"label":60,"url":61},"常见问题","https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\u002FFAQ",{"label":63,"url":64},"美股课程","\u002Fcol\u002Fvideos",{"label":66,"url":67},"免责声明","\u002Fdisclaimer",{"label":69,"url":70},"联系我们","\u002FContactUs",[72,73,74,75],"\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploaderzic2tuwsol2_2025_09_11_18_21_07.gif","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadercakzdvydksw_2025_09_03_09_00_56.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploadergtjyagwvoyk_2025_09_14_08_32_05.png","\u002Fimg\u002Fstockwebsiteblob\u002Fweb-202509-stk\u002FUploader3u0tt4jhlqh_2025_09_23_22_30_48.png","邮箱: buy@TradesMax.com 美国电话 626-378-3637","公司介绍","\u003Cp class=\"MsoNormal\">美股大数据 \u003Ca href=\"https:\u002F\u002Fstockwe.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">StockWe.com\u003C\u002Fa> 是一个美国领先的金融和美股信息大数据提供商，紧盯华尔街金融市场和行情，2008年成立于美国硅谷，创始人是前纽约证券交易所资深分析师Ken，联合多位摩根斯坦利分析师，谷歌 Meta工程师利用AI和大数据，配合十多年美股实战经验和业内量化交易模型，每天处理海量股票数据：挖掘潜力大牛股，捕捉期权异动大单，实时主力资金流向、机构持仓变化、川普突发新闻，美股买卖信号第一时间发到您手机APP。\u003C\u002Fp>","专业美股投资者都在这里",{"loading":81,"search":82,"searchPlaceholder":82,"hotContent":83,"draft":84,"noData":85,"searchNoData":86,"edit":87,"editVideo":88,"courseContent":89,"more":90,"buyNow":91,"subscribeNow":92,"encoding":93,"paidContent":94},"Loading...","搜索","热门内容","草稿","目前没有任何内容公布","当前检索内容没有数据","编辑","编辑视频","课程内容","更多","立即购买后观看","- 立即订阅 -","视频编码中...","付费内容"]